October 15 2010 by
Ong Xun Xiang in
commodity |
With the advent of new instruments for investments, many have since debated on which is the best investment. However, to me, there is nothing such as a best investment because different people have different needs and expectations for their money.
Even though we cannot distinctly tell which is the best investment, it is nevertheless still possible for us to tell which investment is better than the other. Hence, this article will help show you why commodities are better than stocks in 4 aspects.
As many of you know, people have lost money heavily in the recent stock market crash because the prices of many stocks fell to zero. One main reason for this is because price movements in stocks are heavily influenced by emotions where people over-react to negative news. Because of this, there is hardly any predictability and certainty of the profits investors can make.
In contrast, prices of commodities can never fall to zero because there will always be buyers who need it as raw materials to produce goods and services. This serves as a safety net for commodities as demand will always be present. Though the futures market is also affected by emotions occasionally, it can be reasonable to claim that commodity investments are safer than stocks due to the existence of a strong safety net.
To add on, commodity bull markets have the potential to last longer due to its heavy dependence on fundamentals like demand and supply. This is because every single traded commodity takes time to be found, grown, produced and shipped. The costs involved in all the 4 processes above are huge and thus bull markets for commodities can last long as efforts to increase supply more than demand require prices to be high enough for producers to offset these costs.
However, in contrast, bull markets for stocks are usually directed by emotions when the public over-react to positive news. For example, the dot-com bubble of the 1990s where there was a craze about technology bringing people the “New Economy”. As many over-reacted to the wonders of technology, prices of stocks related to technology skyrocketed and hit new highs, only to end up with new lows when the dot-com bubble burst. Hence, bulls for stock markets can last long, but only with an overdose of optimism which can lead to more severe results.
Furthermore, technological developments cannot replace the use of commodities. Instead, they increase the demand for commodities. For example, the invention of thin film photovoltaics like cadmium telluride for solar energy increased demand for tellurium which is also used in memory chips, optical discs and strengthener in lead and copper. This is because commodities are the raw materials we have on Earth to utilize and most technological advancements are made to use these natural resources we have.
In comparison, technological progress can replace the presence of companies, dealing heavy blows to their stock prices which itself are directed by emotion and irrational responses to news. For example, during the dot-com bubble for the 1990s, stock prices of many insurance companies remained low while those for technology-related firms rose rapidly. In stock markets, there are winner and loser stocks if something important happens.
However, for commodities, such events usually bring the prices of commodities up or down as a whole. This is because commodities are rarely categorized into winners or losers like stocks since the rise in price of 1 commodity will increase production costs for another, causing price of commodities to increase as a group.
In addition, commodities are fungible (meaning interchangeable) around the world, allowing tease to substitute current batches for another to store and ship at different times. This is because futures are made portable and easily transferred, allowing 1 contract of a commodity like cotton to be the same as another regardless of the country it is.
To compare, I don’t remember stocks having this convenient feature of being easily substituted. Here, it is clearly shown that commodity investing is more flexible than stocks in certain aspects.
In conclusion, I believe readers have gained new insights on why commodity investing can be better than stocks. However, I do hope that readers do not see me as anti-stock or overly bullish commodities. The purpose of this article is to help readers choose between stocks and commodity investments carefully and it is certainly not my wish to mislead you.
I do know that stocks have many merits and will not proceed to disregard them. However, I do believe that the study by Yale University showing commodities to be better investments than bonds in returns and less risky than paper assets to have some validity.
Author: Ong Xun Xiang
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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