Commodity Trading

Beijing, China (AHN) – Chinese scientists in a submersible have planted their nation’s flag on the seafloor of the South China Sea. The gesture of bravado was to mark the country’s capability to reach and explore the deepest part of the Earth.

The submarine the size of a truck and named Jiaolong, can dive a maximum 4.35 miles deep and made the flag planting in a test run in June at a depth of 2.3 miles. China became the fifth nation after Russia, France, the U.S. and Japan to reach such a depth.

The Jiaolong was built to look for sources of energy underneath the South China Sea, which is believed to be rich in oil and mineral deposits.

Part of China’s undersea program that started in 2002, the China Ship Scientific Research Center secretly built the Jiaolong and sent it to its first test run last year reaching a depth of more than half a mile. By 2012, it will dive its maximum depth, according to the center’s Prof. Weicheng Cui.

About 40 percent of the three person operable submersible’s equipment was imported. Five Jiaolong crews were trained in the U.S. in 2005 using the Alvin deep-diving craft run by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution on Cape Cod, Massachusetts.

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Recent days have seen an intense debate on the hot topic of the year – commodity prices. We have seen commodities across the board tumble in the past few months. Pessimists have started writing obituaries for the commodity bull and pronounced an end to the ascent in commodity prices. The scale of the rout can be seen in the Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a basket of 19 commodities, which has fallen below 400 points to its lowest level since early April, a drop of about 14 percent since a record peak above 473 in early July.

So is the commodity supply/demand squeeze over?

Investors have retreated from the commodity markets on fears that economic slowdown in the United States has infected growth in the rest of the world, worries that demand growth will collapse and a rising dollar.

The global economy has been showing signs of demand destruction as a direct response to high commodity prices, especially Crude Oil. If recently released statistics are to be believed, Americans are driving lesser number of miles, buying fewer cars (especially gas guzzling SUVs) and are shifting to mass transport systems like railroads and buses, away from expensive modes like airlines. Globally also, oil consumption is expected to grow slightly in 2008 year by 760,000 barrels per day to an average of 86.8 million barrels, the weakest global growth rate since 2002. Due to a cyclical slowdown in world economy, not only in North America but also in OECD Europe and Pacific, oil demand will be weak in 2008 as well as in early 2009. Japan is also showing signs of reduced pace of economic activity.

The debate over whether the “Commodity Super Cycle” is dead or alive also revolves on whether the US-dollar has hit rock bottom against the Euro and other foreign currencies. A stronger US-dollar creates a virtuous circle of knocking commodity markets lower. In August, the dollar rose versus all of the other major currencies this on concern the economic slowdown that began in the U.S. is spreading to the rest of the world. The dollar gained 6.4 percent versus the euro, the best performance since the European currency’s debut.

Commodities prices will fall, because they always do. It is a fundamental truth of commodities that they fluctuate about a mean. If demand exceeds supply, ultimately a new mine opens and supply then exceeds demand.

What is being ignored is the fact that that though Demand has slackened, supply still remains tight. When it comes to Oil, non-demand from OECD, Asia and the Middle East still remains strong. Soaring oil prices have not slowed China’s consumption of oil as statistics show that China’s apparent consumption of crude oil and refined oil products both hit record highs in the first quarter of the year. There are talks of slowdown in Chinese economy and demand for commodities post Olympics. However, we are yet to see any convincing evidence of such a halt in Chinese economic growth. Moreover, Chinese government has recently announced a fiscal stimulus which is expected to keep the Chinese economy from slipping into a post games slowdown and by extension, the global economy going.

Also, though OPEC supply has been increasing over the past few months, Non-OPEC supply remains a big problem. Production is declining quickly in Mexico and Russia as well as Britain North Sea Oilfields. Already, with each passing day, OPEC’s spare capacity is moving southward. Moreover, geopolitical situation still remains volatile, threatening to send commodities prices once again over the roofs.

Same goes for Base metals complex. There seems to be no end to the China’s appetite for Copper. Precious metals are also expected to rule at comfortable level as the global economies reel under inflationary pressure. Given the strong demand supply mismatch, possibility of a crash in prices of agricultural commodities also seems far fetched. Rising global population has led to an upsurge in demand while at the same time acreage has gone down significantly. Moreover,inventories of food are touching all time low.

Mark Mobious, the renowned investment Guru says “When you have a long-term uptrend, excesses build up along the way. We are witnessing a correction”. He continues “Demand for commodities will remain at a high level in countries like China and India. If we see a serious worldwide recession, then we will see the end of the commodities boom.”

Thus, in retrospective, it seems pertinent that bull run in commodity markets remains intact. What we are witnessing is a corrective reaction to an unusual run up in prices within a framework of a long term bull market in commodities. Bull markets in commodities last as much as 15-20 years or even more. There may be periods of large correction that may witness a fall of as much as 40%. Though prices may cool in near term due to demand destruction and a stronger Dollar, in longer term, price is expected to be largely influenced by fundamentals intrinsic to commodities. Corrections are inevitable in any uptrend and the commodities market is no exception. The long-term fundamentals dictate that any major corrections remain buying opportunities for long-term investors.

Author: Khan Salman
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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Commodities are all the rage today among traders and investors. The multi-year rallies in crude oil, gold, natural gas, silver, copper, wheat, and other commodities is casting a spotlight on the sector. But did you know that you can play the commodity bull market via the forex market?

The countries that export large quantities of commodities are enjoying tremendous rallies in their currencies. The reasoning for this phenomenon is quite simple. Consider the following scenario.

A refiner in the United States needs some crude oil to turn into gasoline and diesel. This refiner can’t find any oil for sale in the United States, so it turns north and looks for a supplier in Canada. It just so happens that a driller in Canada is sitting on hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil that it needs to sell. The U.S. refiner contacts the Canadian driller and arranges for payment and transportation of the crude oil. In order to complete the sale, the U.S. refiner needs to convert his U.S. dollars into Canadian dollars. The transaction is the equivalent of selling U.S. dollars and buying Canadian dollars.

This transaction is taking place in many different forms all across the world as countries that need commodities are buying from countries that produce the commodities. The commodity producing countries are seeing an unprecedented demand for their currencies.

One of the major players in the global commodity boom includes Canada, which is a resource rich country. Canada is a major supplier and producer of fossil fuels, including crude oil and natural gas. Additionally, the country exports a lot of timber, wood pulp, aluminum, and fertilizer.

Another major force in the global commodity boom Is Australia. The country exports a tremendous amount of metals, including gold, iron ore, coal, wheat, and wool. Neighboring New Zealand, although small in terms of GDP and population, is also a major force in the global commodities trade. New Zealand is a major exporter of food products, specifically dairy, meat and fish. New Zealand exports most of its commodities to Australia, the U.S., Japan, and China.

Norway is emerging is a major force in the global commodities boom because of the country’s rich oil deposits. Norway exports over 3 million barrels of oil per day, mainly to the U.K., Germany, the Netherlands, France, and Sweden.

With the prices of crude oil, natural gas, and food rising, you can now see how currencies like the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar, and Norwegian krone are strengthening. As the prices of these commodities continue higher, so too will the currencies of the countries that export these commodities. It’s due to the simple principles of supply and demand. The demand for the currencies of countries that export commodities increases due to the foreign exchange that must take place in order to trade these commodities.

The trends in commodities and the commodity-related currencies are far from over. You can learn how to identify these trends, and profit from them, right in the forex market. By simply knowing which countries export what commodities, you can join the commodity bull market and profit.

Author: Eric Stout
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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Traditionally, commodity trading in petroleum products was a place where only the elite, super traders dared to venture. With barrels holding 42 gallons each and a contract minimum of 1,000 barrels, delivering oil was a task best left to the professionals. However, the petroleum trading landscape has undergone some dramatic changes over recent years.

For decades oil prices were stable, then in the mid 1970s the industry exploded. Technological advances and the political landscape contributed to the uncertainty, lack of stability, shortages and rising prices. Nearly 30 years later, prices have skyrocket to more than $70 per barrel and the forecasters predict that in mid to late 2007 when it is expected to experience a slight decline for the next two years.

However, there are no certainties when it comes to oil prices, but there are a few large scale factors that can minimize the risk by offering a reasonably accurate projection.

As demands continue to rise, other countries like India and China are also experiencing technological and cultural changes. The trend seems to be in an upswing with no indication of slowing, reversing or of being reversible.

India is riding in on the coattails of its western neighbors in regards to technology and business methods and is emerging in the 21st century. This brings with it an increased demand for energy, mainly oil based, so that homes, office buildings and manufacturing plants can be erected. Rural economy is getting a facelift in many areas as this movement brings with it such exponential growth which, in turn, increases the demand.

Demand is not the only piece of the puzzle, though. As India’s purchasing power to obtain those goods increases, other growth is showing up as well. India has a wealth of inexpensive, highly educated work force which is being sought out for outsourcing of Information Technology, electronics manufacturing, communications and more. This is continued to grow and expand for at least another decade. One indication of this growth is the rapid growth of broadband throughout India.

China is a technological mega country with the largest mobile phone use in the world and a close second for the largest internet population. Energy is in demand throughout the world, but in China it is expected to rise steadily for at least the next decade.

Although China is perceived to be a Communist nation, social forces are causing it effectiveness to decline. As of yet, it is impossible to predict whether the repression will increase or decrease, but it is inevitable that the flow of information will not be stopped and it will reach the people one way or another, despite any government’s attempts to block it.

The social changes within China seem to be somewhat proportionate to the increase in business there. Demand for energy is on the rise and new infrastructure, buildings and manufacturing plants are cropping up on a consistent basis. These businesses and growth all require energy, mainly oil based energy.

Demand continues to rise yet simultaneously supply rates are dropping off or have stalled. Temporary losses, such as with refineries, that occur as the result of disasters may be recovered in a matter of months, up to a year. However, North Sea oil production, which saw its peak in 2000, has seen a gradual decline. Until the time that political changes come around, releasing the massive reserves that are known to be in Alaska, it is not expected that there will be new discoveries of sources that will be utilized. Not many new sources are expected to be realized throughout the globe.

As technology leans in the direction of developing new forms of energy, there is no expectation that any of these sources will appear on the market for a period in excess of ten years. Fuel cell powered cars, which only account for 7% of gasoline use, are not expected to make an appearance for quite a few years.

Existing political pressures in the United States are hindering any hope of a change in the current situation. Waste disposal is one of the primary problems on the political forefront that shows no promise of a solution anytime soon. However, there are new forms of oil trading mechanisms that are evolving that allow the average investor to partake in a market that was at one time exclusive.

For example, e-mini futures on the CME allow for trading contracts that are half the traditional size of 500 barrels. Futures and options on the NYMEX remain at the 1,000 barrel size, yet they require less that 5% investment. These moves place these trades within the grasp of all types of investors. Commodities pools and funds such as those that are offered by Pimco and Oppenheimer allow investing lower amounts which are increasing their popularity.

This time in the marketplace can offer even the average investor a favorable risk and reward balance in oil commodity trading.

A commodity exchange is the type of market where commodities are dealt with. Almost any article of trade are bought and sold in commodity exchanges. Most of the leading commodity exchanges are found in USA and the UK. There are commodity exchanges existing in various other countries too. Based on the goods that are being traded and on their location and size, commodity exchanges differ significantly.

Certain exchanges are famed for trading in particular products. For example, the Chicago Board of Trade, the largest futures exchange, is famous for its trading activities in coffee and sugar. London is known for its metal exchange and petroleum exchange and so on and so forth. One can find commodity exchanges spread throughout the world in places like Brazil, China, Canada, South Africa, Japan, and Russia, to mention only a few countries.

Commodity exchanges commonly deal with agricultural products like Soya products, sunflower seeds, corn, beans, coffee, or other grains. Dairy products and meat are also items which are extensively traded through commodity exchanges. The closing prices set by leading commodity exchanges have huge impact on the trade around the world. Petroleum products like crude oil, gasoline, and precious metals are also dealt widely by commodity exchanges.

One can trade in futures or options in these commodity exchanges. When it comes to futures, one is bound by a contract which specifies the delivery of a commodity at a specific date, whereas in the case of options, it is not so. Buying of options does not bind one to buy anything. Instead, one is given the right to buy certain products for a price, but one need not do so, if required. The flip side with options is that the deal expires after a specified time period.

Most of the commodity exchanges make their closing prices public. Trading is typically done on a large scale. This is the reason why smaller producers and investors don?t trade in large commodity exchanges. However, the bigger traders on the commodity exchanges work closely with smaller traders and businesses, giving them an opportunity to trade their products on a global scale. The traders on commodity exchanges charge a fee from the smaller businesses for doing so.

Author: Richard Romando
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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The economy of any country depends on several factors, and one of them is “trade”. The trading business has a tremendous global impact, and that is why the international community gives it so much of importance. As a matter of fact, trade has been seen to effect the political and social scenario of a particular country as well. This change has come about as a result of globalization, industrialization, great strides in the methods of transportation, World Web, and the coming up of multinational (production and services offered in more than two nations) companies. And now we see the birth of commodities trading brokerage firms too!

A unified organization called the WTO or World Trade Organization has also been set up by the trading community. This international body is in charge of bringing out rules and regulations concerning the international trading system. Additionally, disputes between two trading countries can be brought to them for resolution.

How much international trade has progressed can be understood by reviewing the statistics on exports and imports–

(a) Germany is said to be the leading exporter of world trade merchandise with an overall exports share of 10%. The United States exhibits 8.9% share, followed by China with 6.5% share, Japan with 6.2% share and France with 4.9% share.

(b) Where world trade merchandise import is concerned, the leader is the United States with a 16.1% share on overall imports. Germany is next with 7.6% share, China with 5.9% share, both France and United Kingdom with 4.9% share, and Japan with 4.8% share.

The research figures presented above are enough to prove how high international trade is rated by the international community. Again, changing trends in international trade impact current trends in local markets. This is especially visible where commodities trading is concerned. And that is why commodities trading brokerage firms are on the rise.

The effects visualized on commodities trading when the international market is affected, are–a probable lull in trading activities, changing values on particular commodities, a change in the efficiency of the traders and brokers, plus an impact on the various trading mediums that are in operation. The commodities trading brokerage firms are not unaffected either.

To give a more detailed commentary on commodities trading brokerage firms–

(1) They are major links between those who buy and sell commodities. The transactions are conducted via different exchanges. Since they take up the responsibility of executing all orders, they charge a small fee as commission.

(2) This does not mean to say that they command no standing in the trading community. They do! They are ready to share their expertise with major investors/traders on a professional basis. Their consultations cover the demand and supply scenario, “hot” commodities and current market dynamics.

(3) Commodities trading brokerage firms deal with all kinds of markets, ranging from industrial to agricultural and from options trading to futures trading. Currency trading and stock markets are also part of the package!

(4) There are well-established commodities trading brokerage firms that give value-added services as part of the deal. Those clients who are desperate for success are bound to take up what is offered! Value-added services constitute market intelligence and analysis, ensuring greater chances of profits. Of course, these services do not come free of cost–they are quite expensive!

(5) Thus, for the investor/trader who is passionate about commodities trading, it is advisable to take the help of commodities trading brokerage firms. The commissions to be doled out seem very small in comparison to the huge profits that he/she can get in return for listening to good advice!

To rescue US economy, FOMC has cut interest rate from 6% to 0.25%, not much ammunition left. Japan which is the world’s 2nd biggest economy has suffered due to its strong yen. Even strong and stable Toyota has reported loss. China and Asia which have relied on US for most of their exports have started to show signs of weakness.

I say with confidence that 2009 will be a bad year for businesses, employees and global economy. We will see more cost cutting by firm in the form of retrenchments.

When people lose their jobs, they will spend conservatively. Some people may even have to sell stocks and property in order to raise cash for their daily expenses. Do you believe that in this kind of environment stock investments will do well?

Have you learned anything in 2009? If you have not, then learn that stock investment does not do well in all economy environment.

I think the current business cycle is moving downwards from the peak and we are still far from the bottom. I perceived that stock market is going to test its low and move down even much more in 2009.

I have since switched from stock investment to forex and commodity trading at the start of 2008. Here are some of my commodity trades.


14 trades were executed: 10 wins, 3 losses, 1 breakeven

Here are the trades on commodities from 1 Dec to 24 Dec:

1. On 23 Dec I closed my position at 10.41, profit is 28 ticks (US$280).

Original trade:
Shorted 1000 spot silver at 10.69
Stop level at 10.90
Target level at 10.08

2. On 23 Dec I closed my position at 39.33, profit is 33 ticks (US$66)

Original trade:
Shorted 2 lot supermini oil at 39.66
Stop level at 40.50
Target level at 38.72

3. On 19 Dec target level reached for silver. Close position at 11.12, 14 ticks profit (US$140).

Original trade:
Shorted 1000 spot silver at 10.91
Stop level at 11.12
Target level at 11.12

4. On 19 Dec I close my position at 10.97, profit is 10 ticks, US$99.65.

Original trade:
Shorted 1000 spot silver at 11.07
Stop level at 11.30
Target level at 10.87

5. On 17 Dec I close spot silver position at 11.44, profit is 25 ticks, US$250.

Original trade:
Bought 1000 spot silver at 11.19
Stop level at 10.79
Target level at 11.61

6. On 17 Dec target reached for silver. Profit is 49 ticks.

Original trade details:
Bought 1000 spot silver at 10.68
Stop level at 10.40
Target level at 11.17
Closed at 11.17 (Profit is 49 ticks, US$490)

7. On 16 Dec profit stop at 45.81 is triggered. Profit is 40 pips.

Original trade:
Bought 1 lot of supermini Oil at 45.41
Stop level at 43.70
Target level at 47.00

8. On 16 Dec oil trade triggered stop at 44.00. Loss is US$74.

Original trade:
I bought 1 lot of supermini Oil again at 45.41
Stop level at 43.70
Target level at 47.00

9. On 16 Dec oil trade stop triggered at breakeven

Original trade:
Open Long: 1 lot supermini Oil @ 44.67
Stop level: 44.67 (Shifted to breakeven)
Target level: 46.92

10. On 12 Dec gold trade triggered stop.

Original trade:
Open Long: 100 Spot Gold at 833.43
Stop level at 819.00
Target level at 846.38

11. On 10 Dec target level reached for oil

Original trade:
Open short: 1 Supermini Oil @ 44.25
Stop level: 45.00Target level: 43.13
Close at 43.13, profit is 112 ticks (US$112)

12. On 9 Dec cut loss on oil trade

Original trade:
Open Long: 1 supermini Oil @ 44.27
Stop level: 42.00
Target level: 46.80
Closed: 43.42 (Loss is US$32.00)

13. On 8 Dec took profit on gold

Original trade:
Open Long: 100 Spot Gold @ 770.25
Stop level: 739
Target level: 799.50Closed: 774.38 (Profit is US$413.00)

14. On 5 Dec target level reached for oil

Original trade:
Open Short: 1 lot Supermini Oil @ 45.56
Stop level: 48.10Target level: 42.83
Closed: 42.83 (Profit is US$273)

If you are interested to generate alternative income by tapping on BL TS system, send an email to me at metal.commodity@gmail.com.

To open a commodity trading account, click here to open.

Risk Disclosure:
Commodity trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to participate in the futures trading markets. Don’t trade with money you can’t afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation to invest nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Commodities as an asset class are quickly becoming popular! It is being said that the 21st century belongs to commodity trading. Just remember the early part of 2008, when crude oil prices skyrocketed from $60 per barrel to around $150 per barrel. Wheat, copper, silver, aluminum prices all hit a high during the same time. It seemed that commodity prices are going to hit an all time high.

Now, commodities are going to experience a long period of high demand and low supply. This will propel their prices to all time high. Fundamentals behind the boom in the commodity market are strong. Countries like China, India, Braxil, Russia and others are developing fast. This will increase the demand for commodities in these fast developing economies. This high demand is going to make the prices in the commodity market to skyrocket. Then there is an overall increase in the global population, people are rapidly moving to cities in the developing world, this increases the demand for commodities all over the world. Copper, aluminum and other commodities will be in high demand. In other words, these strong fundamentals will continue for many decades in the 21st century. You need to ride this boom that is taking place in the commodity market.

Now commodity investing can be done in many ways. This is unlike stocks. There are many different investment vehicles that you can use to invest in commodities. You can invest in companies that process commodities like copper, aluminum, uranium. You can even invest in energy companies and oil and natural gas companies. You can invest in commodity ETFs. You can buy precious metals ownership certificates. You can invest in Master Limited Partnerships. Last but not the least, you can invest in gold and oil futures. There are so many possibilities that you can use to invest in commodities.

Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) that invest in energy infrastructure like pipelines and storage facilities are a unique investment as they are traded publicly like a corporation but they offer the benefits of a partnership. Unlike Corporation that are taxed two times, MLPs are not taxed and they pass on their income to shareholders tax free. You will be only taxed on individual basis if you invest in an MLP. An MLP’s primary responsibility is to pass on all the cash flow directly to shareholders, you can afford not to invest in MLPs.

With the rise in the crude oil prices, the demand for nuclear power is on the rise. Price of uranium has gone from $10 in 1994 to more than $40. Uranium market is in an extended bull market for the last decade. You can profit from investing in companies that mine uranium ore.

As more and more investors and traders flock towards commodity trading, exchanges that provide futures contracts, options and other derivatives to commodity traders have seen their stock prices rise! The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), one of the largest commodity exchanges has seen its stock price rise from $40 in 2003 IPO to almost $500 in 2006. This performance was even better than GOOGLE. With the global economy out of recession, this price is again going to shoot up. This is the best time to start commodity trading!

Author: Ahmad A Hassam
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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With all the current volatility in the world’s stock markets, a lot of people are wondering whether it makes sense to invest in anything at all at the moment. Well, I personally see drastic stock market drops as a chance to buy stocks on sale before the price eventually goes back up. But beyond that, there are alternatives to stocks for those who can’t stomach the current state of affairs.

An alternative to stocks is investing in commodities. What are commodities? They are raw materials used to create products that people really need. Things like food, agricultural products like wheat and cattle, oil and gas, and metals like gold, silver, and aluminum.

How are commodities bought and sold?

Most commodities used to be just sold at the local market. Obviously that would present some trouble for the individual investor who can’t store cattle or wheat at home. But in the 1800s, commodity future exchanges were set up. Future and option contracts on commodities can be traded on exchanges around the world. So you no longer have to possess the actual barrel of oil itself, you can possess a contract to own it in the future, and these contracts can be sold.

Futures and options are advanced trading avenues and in my opinion are best avoided for the novice investor. But these days there are other ways to invest in commodities, like buying units in a mutual fund that buys commodity futures.

Why invest in commodities? What are the benefits?

In recent years commodities prices have outperformed stocks and bonds. One reason is that demand for commodities from developing countries is increasing. As massive developing countries like China and India build infrastructure and increase manufacturing, steel, oil, and other commodities will be needed in huge quantities. Increased demand, coupled with decreased supply for some commodities such as oil, will continue to send prices higher. With Asia’s rapid development this will likely continue.

Commodities also move up when stocks go down. Commodities are real assets, unlike stocks and bonds, and they react differently to changing economic conditions. Commodities prices tend to increase with inflation. Stocks and bonds on the other hand, tend to perform better when the rate of inflation is stable or slowing. Since 1990, commodity prices have been negatively correlated with the S&P 500. Since commodities are not positively correlated with stocks and bonds, they diversify your portfolio and help reduce risk and increase returns over time.

Commodities are not only a hedge against inflation, but also a hedge against destabilizing events or catastrophes. Commodity prices rise during times of crisis such as wars and stock market crashes. After the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, stocks dropped while commodities performed well. And during the stock market crash of 1987, stocks dropped by 30% while commodities held steady. There are people out there who horde gold as a way to preserve wealth in some coming cataclysmic event. I would never want to invest in ONLY GOLD, but these people are right that in the event of catastrophe commodities like gold will be far more useful than stocks or cash (which will likely become unbelievably devalued if there’s a catastrophe of huge proportions).

That’s not to say that commodities are free of volatility. They are equally or slightly more volatile than the stock market, but they rarely drop at the same time as the stock market. In these volatile times with stocks continuing to drop or stagnate, commodities are an essential part of any diversified portfolio.

Author: Paul Jorgensen
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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Commodities are an interesting asset class right now for a number of reasons. Commodity investing is a good way to play both offense (global economic recovery) and defense (a hedge for your portfolio against rising future inflation and a falling dollar). They are also a great portfolio diversifier which can reduce the overall risk (volatility) of your portfolio.

Playing Offense: The global economic rebound is coming, and commodities will benefit.
Most of the economies in the world are currently in severe recessions or have significantly lower economic growth than 2 years ago. There are now many signs that the US economy and many other economies have bottomed out and are starting to show signs of life again. US economic growth has improved from a -6% rate over the winter to a -1% rate in the second quarter of 2009 and it will likely show positive economic growth in the second half of 2009. As the economies around the world go from serious recessions to positive economic growth over the next 2 years the demand for commodities will increase and their prices will go up. This global economic growth is likely to be led by China and many other emerging countries which tend to be commodity-based or commodity-heavy economies. China recently announced that their GDP growth in the first half of 2009 was 7.1%, putting them on pace to pass Japan as the world’s second largest economy by yearend. Investing in commodities is somewhat of a back-door play on emerging market growth.

Playing Defense #1: Commodities are a hedge against future inflation.
Historically commodities have been one of the best hedges against inflation. I am somewhat concerned about future inflation due to the massive monetary stimulus the US government has pushed over the past year. The monetary fire hose has been on full blast. Huge monetary stimulus has historically led to higher inflation 1-2 years later.

Playing Defense #2: Commodities are a hedge against a falling US dollar (for US investors).
Commodities are a good hedge against a falling dollar, which is another significant concern for many investors (including myself). Most major commodities (such as oil, gold, etc.) are priced in dollars around the world. When the US dollar gets weaker it has typically caused the price of commodities (in dollars) to go up. The US dollar has been weak for some time, and may continue to weaken going forward. A weaker dollar makes US citizens poorer relative to other countries. The US government’s massive “borrow and spend” fiscal stimulus plan has caused our budget deficit to balloon. This causes international investors to be increasingly concerned and to pull their money out of the US, pressuring the dollar downward.

Commodities are a good portfolio diversifier which can help reduce your overall portfolio risk.
One of the primary reasons investors add commodities to their portfolios is because they have historically had a low correlation with the returns of other investments such as stocks and bonds. This reduces the risk of your overall portfolio as the losses in some investments are offset by gains in others. At Longview Wealth Management we are always looking for investments that have an attractive risk/reward ratio on their own AND that have a low correlation of returns with other investments in our portfolios. Over the past 10 years (1998-2007) the correlation of returns between commodities and large US stocks has been only .14 and the correlation of returns with US bonds has been -.24. These are very low correlation ratios which indicate that commodities can provide powerful diversification benefits to your portfolio. Commodities can be volatile investments on their own but as a group can actually lower the risk of your overall portfolio over time if they are used properly.

What are the negatives of commodity investing?
1. Individual commodities are volatile and risky. For this reason commodities should represent only a small portion (15% or less) of most investor portfolios. We recommend a diversified basket approach to investing in commodities.
2. Investing in certain individual commodities can be difficult and complicated for many investors.
3. Commodity investments don’t pay interest or dividends to investors.

How to Play It? The Powershares DB Commodity Tracking Index ETF (DBC)
Based on my research one good way to get investment exposure to commodities in general is the Powershares Commodity Tracking Index (symbol DBC). This exchange traded fund (ETF) is one of the largest and most widely traded diversified commodity funds. It provides diversified exposure to the most widely traded commodities including crude oil (39% of the fund), heating oil (18%), gold (15%), wheat (15%), corn (13%), and aluminum (10% of the fund). The expense ratio on this fund is .75% which is below average for commodity funds.

This commodity ETF peaked in July of 2008 at around $45/share and then declined about 60% to its bottom of below $20/share in March of 2009. The commodity index seems to have been in a bottoming process over the past 6 months and has recently started showing signs of life bouncing back up to the current price of $22.50/share. This commodity index just broke through its 200 day moving average over the past couple of weeks on the upside. I think there is good upside from here over the long-term.

Author: Keith Tufte
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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Across the world commodity trading activity takes place on a range of modern, regulated commodity exchanges. A wide range of commodities will be traded between end user buyers and producer sellers under the umbrella of standard contract rules and commodity trading regulations.

In effect world commodity exchanges facilitate the buying and selling of raw commodities ranging from crude oil, copper and wheat to platinum and orange juice.

Some commodities such as crude oil and coffee futures have been traded for a considerable long time in mature markets, but now in the early years of the 21st century we are seeing new markets and futures contracts being introduced.

These more exotic commodity classes include carbon in the form of emission permits. With the growing concern about the serious environmental threats from climate change caused by greenhouse gases, a rapidly growing market has developed in emissions permits, a form of activity known as carbon trading.

For the foreseeable future it is likely we will see continual growth of markets which place a price on the environment, with further development in emissions, plastics and perhaps even water.

The basis of commodity trading activity is the buying and selling of futures contracts for a whole range of commodities. While the nickel or cocoa producer will use commodity futures contracts to hedge their future sales, commercial end users will also use these contracts for hedging against sudden spikes in prices.

Yet these two actors in the commodity markets are dwarfed by the high activity levels of speculators or traders who move in and out of the markets trying to make profits.

A futures contract represents a specific type of contract either to buy or sell a specified quantity of a commodity at a price determined by supply and demand at time of contract, at an agreed date in the future.

Across the time zones of the world there are commodity traders active in the markets either using an electronic trading platform or on the floor of an exchange, called open outcry. Over recent years the volume of electronically traded futures contracts has increased significantly, as a number of exchanges have combined to form a super commodity exchange.

Inevitably, with the access afforded by the internet, a combination of an accessible online trading software package and up to date market data, commodity trading has gradually become more available to the retail speculator, who will usually trade with smaller amounts of capital.

Some traders will prefer to focus on a specific area of the commodities markets, while others look more at the price action and do not worry unduly about the fundamentals of supply and demand for raw materials or food.

With the opening up of the emerging market economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China (or BRIC countries), we are likely to see a continuation of the growth in commodity markets in these nations. For example, Dalian Commodity Exchange in China has ambitious plans to develop beyond its current specialism in agricultural commodities, and move to industrial metals and more.

While in the Middle East, Dubai is a growing financial centre and the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange has an interesting product range including WTI light, sweet crude oil, steel, plastics, gold and silver and the Indian Rupee.

While the world economy has suffered some serious shocks following the credit crunch and slowing rate of growth, with a number of companies and even some countries getting into serious financial difficulties, commodities as an asset class would appear relatively unimpaired.

Despite the short term difficulties, the global economy will continue to rely on key commodities such as crude oil, steel and copper, as well as basic softs like sugar, cotton and coffee, not to mention grains such as wheat, corn and rice.

For this reason we can expect commodity markets to see through these problems and for commodity trading as an activity to continue to be at the centre of world trade and finance.

Author: William Davies
Article Source: EzineArticles.com
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